A state of anticipation prevails in Niger this Monday, following the end of a critical deadline set by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for coup leaders. The bloc demanded the reinstatement of ousted President Mohammed Bazoum and a return to constitutional order. In a significant gesture of defiance, the newly-established military council in Niger announced the closure of the country’s airspace until further notice.
Contrary to ECOWAS’s directives, the coup leaders have entrenched their position, edging the nation closer to a potential military intervention—a scenario that ECOWAS had cautioned against on July 29th. As the deadline passed on Sunday, ECOWAS hinted at forthcoming announcements detailing its next steps.
Regional Rifts and Cautions
The unfolding situation, marked by the conclusion of the ECOWAS ultimatum and Niger’s airspace shutdown, has thrust the regional body into a complex quandary. Within ECOWAS, a pronounced division has emerged concerning potential military action against Niamey. Nigeria, currently chairing ECOWAS, remains firmly against any military incursion. Moreover, the Nigerian Parliament, whose approval is requisite for external military ventures, has advocated for prioritizing diplomatic and political avenues, relegating military action to an absolute last recourse.
Algeria has also expressed its opposition to military maneuvers in Niger. In a televised address, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune underscored that military force would “aggravate the situation,” invoking the outcomes observed in nations that have previously experienced such interventions.
Jointly, Mali and Burkina Faso have cautioned against any moves towards a military intervention aiming to restore the Bazoum regime in Niger. They assert that such actions would be tantamount to a “declaration of war.”
Solidarity with the Junta
Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which have witnessed coups in 2020 and 2022 respectively, have extended their support to Niger’s coup leaders. An announcement from Mali’s military conveyed that joint delegations from Bamako and Ouagadougou would be dispatched to Niamey in a display of solidarity, especially in light of ECOWAS’s looming threat of military intervention. Colonel Abdallah Maiga of the Malian military council highlighted that the visit aims to express the unity of these two nations with their “fraternal Nigerien populace.”
ECOWAS at a Crossroads
An insightful analysis by “Foreign Policy” portrayed the Niger coup as perhaps the most daunting challenge currently facing West Africa. The article posited that the culmination of the ECOWAS deadline could potentially ignite large-scale hostilities in the region.
Among the risks delineated by the American publication was the pronounced schism within ECOWAS, which sees nations like Mali and Burkina Faso siding with the coup protagonists, regarding any intervention as an outright act of aggression.
Noteworthy is the shared sentiment of animosity towards France among these nations, rooted in their common colonial histories. They grapple with analogous challenges, helmed by military governments following recent coups.
It was emphasized that given Niger’s substantial size and formidable military, any military engagement risks civilian casualties and might escalate to broader regional conflict. This crisis marks an unprecedented internal rift among ECOWAS member states.
The crux of the dilemma, as highlighted, is that should ECOWAS opt for military intervention, overcoming its internal divides and managing the economic fallout of warfare, it then faces the daunting task of endorsing a leader who might lack domestic legitimacy after drawing the nation into military conflict.
