One year after the outbreak in southern Khartoum on April 15, 2023, the war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces has left approximately 17,000 dead. The conflict has resulted in economic devastation, with losses estimated in the billions of dollars, and has created what is described as the world’s most tragic humanitarian situation. Millions have been displaced from their homes, plunging 25 million people into hunger amid fears of escalating into a full-scale civil war, according to the latest report from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Humanitarian Conditions Deteriorate
Concerns about worsening humanitarian conditions are intensifying as safe havens for those fleeing conflict areas shrink. The war has notably expanded to cover more than 70% of the country, spreading from Khartoum to Darfur, Kordofan in the west, White Nile in the south, and the central states of Gezira and Sennar.
A United Nations report issued Sunday paints a bleak picture of the humanitarian situation in Sudan, highlighting it as one of the fastest unfolding crises globally. Approximately 25 million people, including over 14 million children, are in dire need of humanitarian assistance and support.
The report notes that 17.7 million individuals—over a third of the country’s population—are facing severe food insecurity, with 4.9 million on the brink of famine. It also points out that over 8.6 million people, about 16% of the total population, have fled their homes since the conflict began.
Economic Losses
Economic expert Wael Fahmi estimates the war has destroyed assets worth between $500 to $700 billion. He warns that continued conflict could further shrink the national production base and potentially collapse public financial revenues, significantly increasing losses beyond initial estimates.
Fahmi notes that the industrial sector is the most affected, with about 75% of its production units lost, followed by the service sector at 70%, and agriculture at 65%. Additionally, the conflict has destroyed critical infrastructure such as bridges, dams, electricity and water networks, fuel and communications facilities, as well as health and educational institutions, public buildings, and production sectors.
As a result of the war, the national output has shrunk by more than 40%, and public revenue has decreased by approximately 80%, forcing reliance on money printing amid a lack of international financing. The banking sector and production projects, crucial for financing the economy, have collapsed.
Inflation rates have exceeded 520%, and more than 40% of the population has entered unemployment due to loss of income sources, with most state institutions and private sectors closed. The price of essential food items has tripled due to disrupted supply chains and a significant devaluation of the Sudanese pound; currently, one dollar trades at 1,400 pounds compared to 600 pounds before the conflict.
The industrial infrastructure in Sudan has been completely destroyed and looted, including machinery, raw materials, and even building roofs and air conditioning units.
Fahmi tells Sky News Arabia that the losses have been exacerbated by the significant contribution of the states most affected by the war to the gross domestic product. These include Khartoum and the states of Gezira, Darfur, Kordofan, Sennar, and White Nile, which house most of the production bases and infrastructure crucial to Sudan’s economy.
Observers warn of the serious repercussions of the Sudanese conflict on regional and global security. Joseph Borrell Fontelles, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, expressed concerns, stating, “Europe’s and the world’s security is at stake. The Red Sea is a crucial maritime link between Europe, Asia, and the Pacific, and Sudan could become a revolving door for trafficking humans, extremist fighters, weapons, and all sorts of illicit trade between the Sahel region, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.”
The United Nations has indicated that the war in Sudan has significantly impacted neighboring countries, especially Chad and South Sudan, where disrupted trade and large population displacements are depleting resources and exacerbating hunger.
Cindy McCain, Executive Director of the World Food Programme, emphasized the dire situation: “Millions in South Sudan and Chad face famine as this war has destroyed agriculture, businesses, and national economies—leaving its victims hungry and bankrupt. The fighting must stop now, or the region could soon face the world’s biggest hunger crisis.”
The report predicts a significant economic downturn in South Sudan amidst severe inflation and sharp currency devaluation due to the disruption of the country’s main oil pipeline in March, which runs through Sudan. Oil is the primary income source for South Sudan, accounting for 95% of its revenue.
A similar scenario is unfolding in Chad, where food prices in the east have nearly doubled over the past year. Border closures have severely restricted trade and caused acute food shortages in the markets.
Prospects for Resolution
While influential groups in Port Sudan are pushing for the continuation of the war and rejecting all international, regional, and local efforts to resolve the crisis, most Sudanese pin their hopes on the upcoming round of negotiations scheduled in the Jeddah platform, stalled for over four months.
Despite the failure of all international and regional efforts to halt the conflict in recent months, a reliable diplomatic source told Sky News Arabia that there is broad international agreement to base upcoming negotiations on the African roadmap.
The source detailed that the recent tour of U.S. Envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello in the region and diplomatic contacts made by the U.S. State Department with various international and Sudanese parties have led to significant international and regional support for the six-point African plan. This plan includes deploying UN-backed African forces to separate the warring factions, relocating army and rapid support forces outside cities, establishing humanitarian corridors through a UN committee assisted by a national non-governmental expert committee, and then initiating a political process based on the framework reached before the conflict erupted, which was based on the framework agreement signed on December 5, 2022.
However, significant doubts persist about the success of efforts to resume negotiations, especially after statements made by Burhan on Saturday, stating that the army would not return to negotiations until the rapid support forces vacate all cities under their control.
According to reliable sources, Burhan faces considerable pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood elements to prevent him from sending a more representative delegation to the proposed negotiations in the coming days. The source confirmed that the political cells of the organization are demanding to continue holding a middle ground by sending an incomplete delegation to evaluate each stage independently by referring back to the leadership in Port Sudan and prolonging the negotiations until the army’s position on the ground is strengthened.
Recent reports suggest a scenario where army and rapid support leaders become part of a political settlement, granting them immunity from legal prosecution for past crimes. However, a leader from the Sudanese civil coordination “Taqaddum,” which includes the Forces of Freedom and Change and more than 20 party, civil, professional, and social entities, told Sky News Arabia that this would not be acceptable.
The “Taqaddum” coordination proposes a solution prioritizing the cessation of hostilities and facilitating the flow of humanitarian aid, followed by initiating a political process involving all national forces committed to civilian transformation, excluding the National Congress—the political wing of the Brotherhood—and all its fronts. “Taqaddum” presents a ten-point vision for resolving the crisis, including a comprehensive ceasefire, trust-building measures, a comprehensive political process, and the establishment of a professional national army that stays out of politics and the economy. The vision also includes agreeing on a transitional justice program that ensures accountability for crimes committed since the June 30, 1989 coup through to the current war, including the extradition of those wanted by the International Criminal Court, while simultaneously achieving peace, reconciliation, and compensation for damages.
