The sharp and shared living discrepancies between Lebanese citizens and Syrian refugees in Lebanon are not only comparable to those endured by Syrians within their crisis-stricken homeland but are even more profound. Poverty encompasses approximately 69% of the population, or about 14.5 million Syrian citizens.
Two new reports from the World Bank reveal that the conflict in Syria, now ongoing for over a decade and intensified by external shocks, has further deteriorated the already poor economic situation over the past year, significantly worsening the welfare of Syrian families. The reports highlight the continued lack of funding and limited humanitarian aid, which have increased the drain on families’ abilities to meet their basic needs amid rising prices, declining services, and higher unemployment rates.
Jean-Christophe Carret, the World Bank’s Middle East Regional Director, points out that Syria faced multiple and overlapping shocks last year, and more than a decade into the century’s bloodiest conflict, the country’s capacity to absorb economic shocks has severely weakened. This is especially true with the recent decline in aid flows and the difficulties in accessing humanitarian aid amidst rising regional geopolitical tensions.
Continued Deterioration in 2023
According to the World Bank’s latest observations, Syria’s economic situation continued to decline in 2023. The Syrian pound has significantly depreciated by 141% against the US dollar, and consumer price inflation has surged by 93% due to government subsidy cuts. With the economy slowing, partly due to infrastructure damage from earthquakes and conflicts, public financial revenues are dwindling, leading authorities to further cut expenditures, particularly capital spending.
Despite improvements in agricultural production due to better weather conditions last year, the conflict has severely impacted the agriculture sector. Massive displacements of farmers and extensive damage to infrastructure and irrigation networks have led to a decrease in crop yields.
Economic Contraction
The conflict has also severely affected foreign trade, with the collapse of local industrial and agricultural production increasing Syria’s reliance on imports. The World Bank’s Economic Monitor for Syria anticipates continued economic contraction in 2024, with real GDP expected to shrink by 1.5% this year, adding to a 1.2% decline from the previous year.
Private consumption, the main engine of growth, is expected to continue its decline as purchasing power erodes further due to price increases. Private investment is also expected to remain weak amid unstable security conditions, economic uncertainty, and unclear policy landscapes.
Geographical Distribution of Poverty
In 2022, poverty affected 69% of the population, or about 14.5 million Syrians. While extreme poverty was virtually non-existent before the conflict, more than one in four Syrians experienced it in 2022, likely intensified by the devastating effects of the February earthquake, the financial crisis in Lebanon in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Poverty in Syria has a strong spatial dimension, with more than 50% of the poorest living in just three provinces—Aleppo, Hama, and Deir Ezzor—and the highest poverty rates recorded in the northeastern part of the country.
