The Turkish Parliament is set to resume discussions today, Tuesday, on approving Sweden’s request to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This complex issue has been further complicated by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan linking it to Ankara’s request to the United States for F-16 fighter jets.
Sweden and Finland abandoned decades of military neutrality by seeking membership in the U.S.-led defense organization following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Their applications were quickly approved by all NATO members except Turkey and Hungary. Eventually, Finland was accepted as the 31st member of the alliance in April.
Turkey and Hungary remain the only NATO members who have not yet ratified Sweden’s application, 19 months after it was submitted. In November, the Turkish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee failed to agree on a draft resolution for a parliamentary vote, and is set to meet again today.
Erdoğan initially dropped his objections to Sweden’s NATO bid in July, following Stockholm’s crackdown on Kurdish groups Ankara considers terrorist organizations. A Justice and Development Party (AKP) deputy and head of the Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Fuad Oktay, noted in a television interview on Monday that there has been a shift in Sweden’s policy, including some court decisions, though he deemed them insufficient and called for further steps.
Once the committee approves the proposed text, it will be put to a vote in a general session of the Parliament, where Erdoğan’s ruling coalition holds the majority of seats. Other NATO members, including France, have intensified pressure on Turkey, stating that the alliance’s credibility is at stake.
The process remains fraught with issues. In December, Erdoğan stated that the Parliament would not make any decision on Sweden until the U.S. Congress approves the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, along with spare parts. He also expects other NATO allies, including Canada, to lift their arms embargo on Ankara. He linked positive developments from the U.S. regarding F-16s and Canada fulfilling its promises to a positive approach by the Turkish Parliament towards Sweden’s membership.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, commented that Sweden’s NATO membership and the F-16 sales to Turkey are somewhat coordinated as, unfortunately, neither country trusts the other.
Turkey’s aging air force was impacted by its exclusion from the U.S.-led F-35 joint strike fighter program in 2019, a response to Erdoğan’s decision to acquire a Russian air defense system viewed as a security threat by NATO.
Despite repeated pledges by U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration to proceed with the $20 billion F-16 sale to Ankara, lawmakers have blocked it due to concerns over Turkey’s alleged human rights violations and past tensions with Greece.
Unluhisarcikli noted that there is no strong consensus in the Turkish Parliament on Sweden’s NATO membership, nor in the U.S. Congress on the F-16 sale to Turkey. However, he added that if Biden and Erdoğan demonstrate the necessary will, the process could be completed soon.
