The discussions between Americans and Iraqis regarding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq present a complex issue due to the involvement of multiple parties. The Iraqi government is at the forefront, alongside various other stakeholders ranging from the Iraqi public and Shia parties to Sunni parties, regions, and the Kurds. The external dimension of the Iraqi issue is equally significant, with Turkey having an interest in keeping Shia militias and Iranian influence away from its southern border, while Iran seeks the expulsion of Americans from Iraq to extend its growing influence. Additionally, the U.S. has significant security extensions in Syria as well.
The Americans express a singular concern: preventing the resurgence of ISIS. Describing ISIS as a highly dangerous organization spread across Iraqi territory, especially near the Syrian border, the U.S. insists that any withdrawal must ensure ISIS does not return. This requirement encompasses various prerequisites, including the capabilities and readiness of the Iraqi government forces to maintain stability and prevent any crises caused by the terrorist organization.
One spokesperson emphasized that the U.S. administration does not want a repeat of the 2011 scenario when U.S. forces withdrew, leaving the Iraqi government in charge, only to return hurriedly three years later as Iraqi forces collapsed in the face of ISIS’s advance. The Americans are serious about this condition, viewing the challenge of ISIS not merely as an Iraqi problem but as a global terrorist threat.
The American presence in Iraq also raises questions regarding their operations in Syria, as U.S. forces have relied on bases in Iraq, Jordan, and Al-Tanf to support missions in northeastern Syria. In the event of a withdrawal, the U.S., especially its military, would need new logistics plans to support American and Syrian Democratic Forces inside Syrian territory. A spokesperson made it clear that Washington has no friends in Syria, indicating that Syrian territory cannot replace Iraqi territory for logistical support, as most areas in Syria are controlled by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian militias.
When discussing relations with Iraq, the Americans give the impression that the military presence is more of a technical issue, emphasizing military challenges and counter-terrorism more than anything else. However, sources confirm that “Iraqis do not want the American forces to leave,” though details on this are sparse.
The Iraqi government seeks a different approach to withdrawal, under specific slogans, wanting to frame the withdrawal as the end of the coalition mission rather than a U.S. withdrawal, to be done by mutual agreement and leading to deep bilateral relations. Regardless, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will mark another shift in U.S.-Iraq relations. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. does not see its presence in Iraq as a strategic necessity and does not speak of confronting Iranian influence and its arms in Iraq and Syria. Yet, indications suggest that Iraqi Kurds want Washington to maintain a significant presence in their region, regardless of any future agreements between Washington and Baghdad.
