Global temperatures rose by 0.26 degrees Celsius from 2014 to 2023, according to a study in Earth System Science Data.
During this period, the average global surface temperature was 1.19C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, an increase from the 1.14C reported for the decade up to 2022.
The study highlights the unprecedented rate of human-induced warming. This research aims to provide interim climate assessments between the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, which are typically released every six years since 1988.
The study’s release coincides with international climate talks in Germany, preparing for the UN COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November.
The 2015 Paris Agreement, stemming from an earlier COP summit, set goals to limit global warming to “well below” 2C, with an aspirational limit of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
By the end of 2023, human activities had raised temperatures by 1.31C above pre-industrial levels.
Factoring in natural phenomena like El Niño, Earth’s temperature increased by 1.43C.
A significant contributing factor is the reduction of atmospheric pollutants that previously reflected some of the Sun’s energy back into space.
Efforts to reduce air pollution in Europe, the US, and Asia, particularly China, have led to this decline, explained Glen Peters of Norway’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research.
Global shipping regulations and a decrease in coal-fired energy have also reduced sulfur dioxide emissions, which had a cooling effect. However, the primary cause of global warming remains greenhouse gas emissions, which are at an all-time high.
Between 2013 and 2022, annual emissions averaged 53 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and equivalent gases, mainly from fossil fuels. Emissions in 2022 reached 55 billion tonnes.
This trend is rapidly shrinking the world’s carbon budget, the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted before surpassing the 1.5C threshold.
In 2020, the IPCC estimated the remaining carbon budget to be about 500 billion tonnes of CO2.
By early 2024, this budget had dwindled to approximately 200 billion tonnes.
Lead author Piers Forster noted a slight optimism as the rate of emission growth has slowed since 2000, suggesting a potential deceleration of climate change.
However, co-author Pierre Friedlingstein emphasized that stabilizing emissions is insufficient; they must decrease to net zero to prevent further warming.
Without significant emission reductions, the 1.5C threshold will likely be breached and could become a “long-term average” within the next decade.
