Data and analysts indicate a steady decline in US sea-borne crude oil imports from OPEC+ alliance members, including Saudi Arabia, last year. This reduction tightens supplies for the American market while supporting other markets like Europe.
The changing level of US crude oil imports from OPEC and other exporters, along with US shipments to Europe, is likely to have a more direct impact on global oil prices due to the alterations this year on Brent crude.
The decrease in US imports coincides with supply cuts by OPEC, Russia, and other allies, along with a voluntary reduction totaling 1.3 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia and Russia until the end of 2023.
Saudi Arabia and Russia’s decision to extend voluntary cuts pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel in late September. The cut also reduced crude supplies, especially high-sulfur crude, ahead of the winter heating fuel season.
Projections by Kepler suggest US sea-borne crude imports will average 2.47 million barrels per day in October, down from 2.92 million in September, with shipments decreasing from OPEC+ producers including Nigeria, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia.
The decline partly ties to seasonal changes as US gasoline demand drops post-summer. However, analysts mention other factors contributing to this decline.
Matt Smith, a senior oil analyst at Kepler, highlighted that Saudi Arabia is instead exporting more crude to China. Kepler data showed Saudi crude exports to China rose to about 1.6 million barrels per day in September.
With the decline in crude imports, the US exported less oil to Europe. The drop in exports to Europe impacted Brent crude futures prices, traders said.
