The Arab Monetary Fund has forecasted a robust economic growth rate of 6.2% for Libya in 2024, with a slightly lower growth rate of 5.9% expected in 2025.
This optimistic projection follows a notable economic rebound in 2023, where Libya’s economy grew by 12.1% after contracting by 5.5% in 2022.
The recovery has been primarily driven by a significant increase in oil production, which has surpassed one million barrels per day.
The recently published report, “Arab Economic Outlook 2024,” anticipates Libya’s inflation rate to be 3% in 2024, with a modest decline to 2.9% in 2025.
However, the Arab Monetary Fund cautions that these growth prospects are highly dependent on political stability and the continued rise in oil production.
The report highlights several economic risks that could impact Libya’s growth outlook.
Key concerns include a potential decline in oil prices due to the global economic slowdown and the risk of renewed conflicts or social unrest, which could disrupt oil production.
Libya’s fiscal situation showed significant improvement in 2022, transitioning from a deficit to a surplus thanks to increased oil revenues and controlled spending.
The fiscal surplus reached 4% of GDP in 2021 and surged to 9% in 2022, despite rising expenditures, including social safety net reforms.
The Libyan government remains committed to maintaining prudent financial management.
The Arab Monetary Fund anticipates that high financial and external surpluses will continue, supported by elevated oil prices.
