ISIS extremists have nearly doubled their territorial control in Mali in less than a year. This expansion comes as their Al-Qaeda-affiliated rivals benefit from the stagnation and notable weakness in armed groups that agreed to a peace accord in 2015, according to a recent report by United Nations experts.
The report stated that the ineffective implementation of the peace agreements and ongoing attacks on communities provide ISIS and Al-Qaeda-linked groups an opportunity to “replay the 2012 scenario.” The reference is to a military coup that took place in March 2012, which was followed by the formation of an insurgent organization in the north of Mali two months later. Though French-led military operations ousted the extremists from power in the north, they have since migrated to the more populous central region of Mali and continue to be active.
Experts in the report highlighted that the inertia in executing the peace accord—specifically, the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of fighters—has enabled the Al-Qaeda-linked group Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen to compete for leadership in northern Mali.
Ongoing violent acts and attacks predominantly executed by ISIS militants in the Saharan Desert make the parties to the peace agreement appear as “weak and unreliable security providers” for targeted communities, said the experts. They also stated that Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen is exploiting this weakness to present itself as the sole entity capable of protecting citizens from ISIS in the Saharan region.
The UN report explained that Mali’s military rulers are observing the confrontation between ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates from a distance.
Some sources suggest that the government believes the conflict in the north could eventually benefit Malian authorities. However, other sources warn that time is on the side of the terrorists, “whose military capabilities and societal penetration grow each day.”
This unsettling expansion of ISIS in Mali calls into question the effectiveness of international and regional counter-terrorism efforts, putting at risk not just Mali but the stability of the Sahel region. As ISIS and Al-Qaeda-aligned groups exploit local and governmental weaknesses, the need for a robust, multi-faceted approach to tackle the escalating crisis becomes increasingly urgent.
