Iran has warned that only a ceasefire agreement in Gaza from anticipated talks this week would prevent it from directly retaliating against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, according to three senior Iranian officials.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which it blamed on Israel, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
A senior Iranian security official stated that Iran, along with its allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if Gaza talks fail or if Iran perceives Israel is stalling negotiations. The officials did not specify how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
As the risk of a broader Middle East war rises following the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has engaged in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States on ways to calibrate its response.
U.S. Ambassador to Turkey confirmed that Washington is asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of Gaza ceasefire talks, scheduled to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar, have been described by three regional government sources.
“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. stated. However, Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday said that calls to exercise restraint “contradict principles of international law.”
The U.S. and Israeli governments have expressed concerns that Iran and its proxies could act imminently. White House spokesperson John Kirby indicated that any immediate actions by Iran could affect the upcoming Gaza ceasefire talks.
Many observers in Israel believe that Iran’s response is imminent, especially after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement promising to “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran. Iran’s regional policy is set by the Revolutionary Guards, who report directly to Khamenei. Since taking office, Iran’s relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly affirmed Iran’s anti-Israel stance and support for resistance movements across the region.
