Recent studies warned of a severe environmental disaster as the Caspian Sea’s water levels have plunged by approximately 38 cm in just the last four years. A cumulative drop of 170 cm since the 1990s threatens to leave the Caspian Sea’s northern shelf and parts of the Turkmen shelf to the southeast virtually parched.
An ‘mdeast’ report suggests that the eastern shoreline is predicted to turn completely arid. Projections by experts at the National Center for Caspian Sea Studies and Research back in 2017, forecast a dramatic shrinkage of the Caspian Sea’s water mass by 2050.
This shrinkage is largely attributed to climate change, which is expected to accelerate in the future. Nearly half of the decrease in the Caspian Sea’s water level is due to the rise in temperatures and subsequent water evaporation.
Experts sound the alarm that if this trend continues at its current pace, almost 20-25% of the Caspian Sea’s northern section, which includes the Russian coastline, could see significant contraction. The data show that the Caspian Sea’s water level receded by about 50 cm between 2014 and 2021 alone, leading to the sea retreating between 10 to 100 meters along different coastlines.
High-precision terrestrial measurements carried out at coastal stations of the Caspian Sea indicate a notable increase in the coastal area along more than 850 kilometers of Iran’s northern shoreline. Experts predict that with the accelerating water depletion, the sea will further contract, leading to a substantial part of the seabed being exposed in the near future.
The reduction in the Caspian Sea’s water level is expected to have negative repercussions on the economic, social, and tourism sectors in the Mazandaran region. To address this crisis, the nations bordering the sea need to initiate emergency measures through dedicated meetings before it is too late.
