Since the outbreak of conflict between the army of Sudan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), international and regional entities have launched nine initiatives to halt the war, yet none have successfully resolved the crisis.
Challenges and Obstacles
Analysts and political observers attribute the failure of these attempts to the multitude of platforms and a lack of willingness among some parties to achieve peace.
Additionally, the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, which opposes ending the war, is seen as a significant factor.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, displaced over 12 million people, and caused extensive damage to Sudan’s economy and infrastructure.
Various Initiatives
Jeddah Platform
Initiated on May 6, 2023, less than a month after the fighting began in mid-April 2023, the Jeddah negotiations were coordinated by Saudi Arabia and the United States to end war in Sudan.
Three rounds of talks took place, the latest in December 2023. Efforts are ongoing to bring both parties back to the negotiating table, with Saudi Arabia delivering a message to Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in this regard.
Manama Negotiations
Between November 2023 and January 2024, secret negotiations took place in Manama, Bahrain, sponsored by the United States. The U.S. State Department revealed these talks in February 2024.
African Union and IGAD Efforts
The African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have made six attempts to mediate since May 2023. Key milestones include:
• A June 12, 2023, IGAD summit in Djibouti.
• A July 10, 2023, meeting in Addis Ababa, which the army boycotted in protest of Kenya’s leadership of the AU’s quartet committee.
• A December 9, 2023, IGAD summit in Djibouti.
• A January 20, 2024, IGAD summit in Kampala, Uganda, which set a two-week deadline for a direct meeting between the army and RSF leaders. However, Sudan announced its suspension from IGAD just hours after the summit.
Cairo Conference
The latest attempt was a conference in Cairo on July 6-7, 2024, under the theme “Together for Stopping the War,” involving the Coordination of Civil Forces “Taqadum” led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and representatives from the pro-war Democratic Bloc.
Agreements Without Implementation
Despite signing a ceasefire agreement within five days of the Jeddah Platform’s first round of talks, it quickly collapsed. Key points of unfulfilled agreements include:
- Allowing humanitarian aid and restoring essential services.
- Withdrawal of forces from hospitals and clinics.
- Respectful burial of the dead.
- Arresting former regime elements who escaped from prisons.
In Manama, a preliminary 21-point agreement was signed, focusing on:
• Ceasefire and maintaining forces’ positions.
• Establishing a professional, national army from all forces.
• Disengaging the military from political affiliations.
• Arresting escaped convicts and handing over wanted individuals.
African Union’s Six-Point Plan Includes:
• Permanent ceasefire.
• Making Khartoum a demilitarized capital.
• Moving forces 50 kilometres from cities.
• Deploying African troops to protect strategic institutions.
• Addressing the humanitarian crisis.
• Initiating a political process for a final settlement.
The December 2023 IGAD summit concluded with an agreement for Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) to meet without preconditions to discuss a permanent ceasefire. However, this meeting has yet to occur, with Burhan rejecting it and Sudan suspending its IGAD membership.
Ongoing Conflict in Sennar State
As the battles rage on in Sennar State, observers and political actors point to four main reasons for the failure of international and regional efforts to end Sudan conflict:
1) Lack of seriousness from both parties in seeking peace.
2) Multiple negotiation platforms.
3) Absence of effective mechanisms to enforce agreements.
4) Perceived influence of the Muslim Brotherhood within the army.
