Fifteen months into the de-escalation, the United Nations has warned that Yemen still faces high risks of a resurgence of violence due to the failure to establish a peace agreement, food security issues, the impact of the climate crisis, alongside institutional weakness and diminished resilience.
According to the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), Yemen is confronting three paths of risks that could lead to exacerbation of the conflict, spearheaded by the persistence of the conflict, climate crises, and developmental weakness linked to decreased resilience.
It explained that the conditions in the country are witnessing significant deterioration that could result in renewed acts of violence, attributing the reasons for this to the exacerbation of economic risks, climate crises, scarcity of natural resources, and risks faced by the society, despite a slight increase in community immunity due to international aid in the water, sanitation, and hygiene sectors.
The Economic Commission’s report indicated that the primary indicator of the risk of conflict in Yemen is the increasing number of internally displaced persons, amidst the ongoing war without a resolution. No peace agreement has been signed between the parties so far, despite about 15 months into the UN-backed de-escalation. The intensifying conflict and proliferation of light weapons contribute to the escalating risk of a return to armed violence.
In addition to that, the Economic Commission for Western Asia identified food insecurity and the increasing reliance on food imports as a major source of risks on the developmental path. It stated: There are two main drivers of developmental risks in this country – economic deterioration and the increasing risk of income inequality.
