Thousands of Tunisians are forced to migrate from their residential areas due to the repercussions of climate change, including water scarcity and increased droughts, which have become more severe in recent times, particularly affecting villagers and farmers.
This trend is occurring alongside rising temperatures, far exceeding global averages.
Rouida Al-Gufrage, an expert in policies, water resources, and climate adaptation, highlighted that Tunisia has faced significant rainfall deficits for the past five years, coupled with a substantial rise in temperatures by 2.3 degrees Celsius in January, 2.1 degrees in February, and 2.9 degrees in March.
According to Al-Gufrage, the rainfall recorded may be lost due to evaporation, thereby diminishing its effectiveness for wheat cultivation, especially as March’s rainfall only represents 27% of the anticipated precipitation needed for wheat cultivation.
Furthermore, rainfall from September 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024, accounted for only 46% of the average rainfall recorded over the past 30 years, indicating a 54% deficit.
This situation poses a severe risk, exacerbated by high temperatures affecting wheat crops, causing them to turn yellow due to inadequate rainfall, leading to the emergence of plant and agricultural diseases.
The Tunisian expert noted that the Ministry of Agriculture has decided to extend the period of resorting to water rationing by cutting off water supply to residents from 8 p.m. to 7 a.m. and prohibiting the use of drinking water for irrigation and car washing, among other measures for farmers.
She also emphasized that the impact of rainfall scarcity, especially on rainfed agriculture, is a significant driver of agricultural labor migration to urban areas for alternative employment, resulting in labor shortages and increased vulnerability in the agricultural sector.
Some farmers are even opting to sell their land at low prices due to its diminished profitability.
Data from the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture indicates that only 2.7 million quintals of grains were harvested in the 2022 season, compared to 7.5 million quintals in the previous season and 15 million in 2020.
This poses a threat to food security for approximately 2.7 million Tunisian families experiencing bread shortages.
