There is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This serves as a stark warning that we are getting ever closer to the temperature goals set in the Paris Agreement on climate change, which refers to long-term temperature increases over decades, not just one to five years.
The WMO report predicts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 will be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. It states that there is an 86% chance that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, surpassing 2023, which is currently the warmest year on record.
Furthermore, the report indicates a 47% likelihood that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year period from 2024 to 2028 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, an increase from 32% in last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
The report’s release coincides with a major speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, who is calling for much more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy from June 13-15.
