The leader of the opposition Christian Democratic Party (CDU) in Germany, Friedrich Merz, is spearheading efforts to change the current coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a member of the Social Democratic Party (SPD).
Merz told the German news agency DPA that he supports a swift transition to a conservative federal government led by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in partnership with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), amidst disagreements over the budget among the coalition parties.
Merz, who leads the largest opposition parliamentary bloc, stated, “I and the leader of the CDU, Markus Söder, agree that we want to change this government as soon as possible.”
Merz affirmed that if the coalition fails, early federal elections may be considered on June 9th, coinciding with the European elections.
However, the path to early elections remains complex as Scholz would have to face a vote of no confidence in parliament and lose it, which is currently unexpected.
With European and federal elections taking place simultaneously, the European Parliament could benefit from significant voter turnout, according to Merz.
European elections in Germany serve as an opportunity for voters to send a message to the current government.
There are concerns that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party may perform well in 2024, and some hope that high voter participation can prevent this.
Recent polling results in Germany indicate that nearly half of Germans expect the collapse of the ruling coalition before the next federal parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall of 2025.
A poll conducted by the Forsa Institute for the German news agency DPA revealed that 27% of eligible German voters anticipate the coalition’s end next year, while 21% believe it will survive until 2025 but collapse before the federal parliamentary elections.
In contrast, 34% of those surveyed, who include the election-eligible population, anticipate the continuation of the three-party coalition until the upcoming elections.
Speculation about early federal parliamentary elections or a change in the ruling coalition is on the rise due to disagreements between coalition parties on budget policies and other issues.
For instance, the Scholz-led Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats (the opposition party) together currently hold a majority in the current parliament.
According to the poll, estimates among supporters of the ruling coalition parties differ regarding the coalition’s future.
A majority of Green Party supporters, at 58%, believe the coalition will continue until the 2025 elections. This percentage drops to 43% among Social Democratic Party supporters and 40% among Liberal Party supporters.
In contrast, a majority of opposition party supporters believe there are signs of an early collapse of the ruling coalition.
This opinion is held by 54% of Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) supporters, while it rises to 65% among Alternative for Germany (AfD) supporters.
Forty-eight percent of Left Party supporters believe the coalition will collapse before the elections, while 41% expect it to continue until the scheduled 2025 elections.
