France is currently witnessing intricate maneuvers among three main parliamentary blocs vying for seats in the National Assembly.
This situation is unprecedented in a country unaccustomed to forming coalition governments due to its electoral system, which typically produces a parliamentary majority.
The National Assembly, comprising 577 seats, is currently divided mainly between the New Popular Union (a leftist coalition with 190-195 seats), the presidential camp (center-right with around 160 seats), and the far-right National Rally and its allies (143 seats).
To secure stability, any government needs the backing of at least 289 deputies to be immune from a no-confidence motion that could bring it down.
This unusual situation in France arose due to the formation of the “Republican Front” in the second round of legislative elections, which prevented the far-right from gaining power.
Over 200 candidates from President Emmanuel Macron’s camp and the left withdrew in favor of stronger candidates to block the National Rally, a strategy that yielded unexpected results.
Jean-Daniel Lévy, Executive Director of the Harris Interactive polling institute, remarked that while voters expressed their views, this does not grant any side a clear mandate.
The New Popular Union, comprising La France Insoumise (radical left), Socialists, Communists, and Greens, aims to take control but lacks sufficient seats.
The presence of La France Insoumise complicates matters due to its perceived anti-Semitic stances, particularly in light of its defense of the Palestinian cause following Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israeli settlements on October 7 and the subsequent devastating Israeli war in Gaza.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the party leader, is a divisive figure, even within the left.
Legislative elections in France are typically held following presidential elections, granting the new president a clear majority to govern.
Unlike other European countries like Germany, Spain, and Italy, which use proportional representation leading to a diverse parliament, the French National Assembly is elected through a two-round majority system.
The candidate with the most votes in the second round wins, a system that traditionally favored a political landscape composed of left and right blocs before the rise of Macron’s centrists and the far-right.
Pascal Joannin, Director General of the Robert Schuman Foundation, noted that France is not used to forming coalitions.
While most countries know how to do this, France lacks the “political software” to manage such a situation effectively.
Joannin suggested that resolving this impasse requires abandoning ideological displays and focusing pragmatically on meeting the demands of the French people.
Recent polls have not clarified the situation. An Elabe poll showed that most respondents were not convinced by any of the main scenarios for forming a government, whether by the left alone, a coalition of the left and center-right, or a coalition of the center, right, and left.
Another poll by Odoxa revealed that only 43% of French people support forming a coalition when no other option is feasible.
Political parties seem to be at an impasse, with leaders more focused on discrediting potential partners than finding common ground. Amid these maneuvers, little attention is paid to actual political programs.
After calling for early legislative elections on June 9 by dissolving the National Assembly following his party’s defeat in the European elections, Macron on Wednesday urged “republican political forces” to “build a solid majority.”
On Friday, the president lamented the “catastrophic scene” within his camp, which is struggling to unite behind outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.
On the left, La France Insoumise and the Socialist Party cannot agree on a candidate for prime minister. Meanwhile, the Republicans, who could become kingmakers with the 40 seats they won in the National Assembly, have declared they want “neither coalition nor compromise.”
Olivier Roux, a public law professor at Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne University, noted that “political parties operate as if we are still in the previous system,” adding that “a rapid change in the French mentality is necessary.”
The current turmoil might benefit far-right leader Marine Le Pen, potentially propelling her to the Élysée Palace in the 2027 presidential election.
Similar to Italy, where a major political crisis in 2021 forced former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to form a national unity government, France might see a power shift. Less than two years after Italy’s crisis, far-right leader Giorgia Meloni rose to power.
