Two and a half years after the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Hungary continues to pursue a unique path. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin twice in a year, continues to receive Russian gas, and has delayed several EU sanctions packages against Russia.
Hungary now threatens to block further EU aid payments for Ukraine due to an oil dispute involving Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine.
Hungary has been receiving Russian oil via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, running from Russia through Ukraine. However, Kyiv has halted the transit of oil from Russian company Lukoil through Ukrainian territory, prompting complaints from Hungary and Slovakia to the European Union.
“Ukraine may have hoped that sanctioning Lukoil would lead to Hungary and Slovakia’s concessions in Ukraine policy. However, we see that this is not the case,” said Kai-Olaf Lang, a political scientist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), in the ntv podcast “Wieder was gelernt”. “Pressure creates counter-pressure. The governments in Budapest and Bratislava view this as an unfriendly act causing energy-related problems.”
The EU has imposed import bans on Russian oil, with exceptions for countries particularly dependent due to geographical proximity, such as Hungary and Slovakia.
Budapest and Bratislava are alarmed by the transit stop for Lukoil and accuse Kyiv of violating an association agreement with the EU, which states that energy transit should not be hindered unless Ukraine acts out of security interests. Kyiv argues similarly, but Hungary and Slovakia disagree.
The European Commission is now in charge. “The European Commission must ensure the EU association agreement with Ukraine is implemented correctly, but there is also a political dimension,” said Lang. “The enthusiasm in Brussels and among most EU member states to show solidarity with Hungary and Slovakia here is likely limited.” Therefore, Brussels is initially playing for time, hoping both sides will reconcile without major EU intervention.
